Will The Next War Be Over Ventilators?

Ventilators.

This is a word that we will  be hearing a lot in the coming days, weeks (and hopefully not months) and the fight to acquire as many ventilators as possible is becoming akin to stockpiling nuclear weapons. Judging by all the numbers coming in from around the globe, it’s fairly clear that the west (aside from maybe one European nation) was gravely ill-prepared for the gravity of this black swan moment caused by the coronavirus.

From various sources, here is a list with an approximate number of ventilators for a few countries. These are just the wealthy ones, so you can just imagine what ventilator totals look like for countries in Africa or Latin America.

USA: ~62,000 modern units (Source: Cambridge University, 2013). Society for Critical Care Medicine says there are more than double that number when you account for obsolete units: “The addition of older hospital ventilators, SNS ventilators, and anesthesia machines increases the absolute number of ventilators to possibly above 200,000 units. Many of the additional and older ventilators, however, may not be capable of adequately supporting patients with severe acute respiratory failure.” (SCCM)

Germany: 25,000 (Government figure from Financial Times, March 17, 2020); German government recently placed an order for an additional 10,000 ventilators with manufacturer Drägerwerk AG (Reuters).

Canada: ~5000 (from a 2015 study published in the Globe and Mail)

France: 5,065  – ICU beds equipped with ventilators with many already occupied by patients (Source: Financial Times, March 17, 2020)

Spain: 4,334 (Financial Times, March 17, 2020)

United Kingdom: ~5, 000 (UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s recent estimate; Source: The Guardian)

Italy: Obviously not enough as Italian doctors are reportedly having to make difficult choices as to who gets an ICU bed with a ventilator—whether it will be a 42 year old with two children and a 78 year old with five grandchildren. On a more positive note, the Chinese government reportedly sent 40 ventilators  along with other medical supplies after Italy’s calls for help to EU neighbors fell on deaf ears. Furthermore, China will also ship 150 more ventilators in the coming days to meet demand.

There are plenty more depressing ventilator figures I can dig up from around the globe, but it will simply shine an even more glaring spotlight on the problem at hand. The obvious dearth of ventilators dramatically ups the ante when it comes to the geopolitical ramifications that will reverberate through the region for years to come.  The manner in which governments act today will effect relationships in the future. My big fear is that a regional war might break out if attitudes don’t improve.

Needless to say, this is one of those unique moment in history where we must come together because it will serve not only our national interests but also those of the entire planet. What happens in China effects those in Italy and what happens there will undoubtedly effect people all around the world.

Climate deniers will hate this reference, but I feel like the coronavirus is practice for the larger climate problem at hand—except in reverse. If young people who don’t straighten up when it comes to combating coronavirus (i.e. following social distancing guidelines), it will kill off a lot of old people. Conversely, if old people don’t make necessary changes to emissions, it will leave a broken planet for the young people in the future.

With that said, we must help in all possible ways—whether it is words of support or by lending equipment, money, manufacturing capabilities, etc.. At the end of the day, if there is a silver-lining to this God-awful virus, it is showing us that we are all linked—that we are all on the same boat (hopefully one without coronavirus).